Further decline in business activity across Dubai’s private sector

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Private sector companies based in Dubai signalled the first deterioration in overall operating conditions since data collection began in 2010 during February. At 48.9, the headline seasonally adjusted Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index – a composite indicator designed to give an accurate overview of operating conditions in the non-oil private sector economy – was down from 50.7 at the start of 2016 and signalled a marginal deterioration in the health of the sector.

Sub-sector data indicated that travel & tourism companies noted the fastest deterioration in business conditions. The health of the construction and wholesale & retail sectors also deteriorated, albeit at marginal rates.

The headline Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index is derived from individual diffusion indices which measure changes in output, new orders, employment, suppliers’ delivery times and stocks of purchased goods.

A reading of below 50.0 indicates that the non-oil private sector economy is generally declining; above 50.0, that it is generally expanding. A reading of 50.0 signals no change.
The survey covers the Dubai non-oil private sector economy, with additional sector data published for travel & tourism, wholesale & retail and construction.

Commenting on the Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker, Khatija Haque, Head of MENA Research at Emirates NBD, said, “The Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker reading in February highlights the challenges faced by Dubai’s external-oriented service-based economy. Uncertainty about global economic growth, volatility in financial markets and low oil prices have weighed on sentiment and activity, while tourism and retail trade has also been affected by a strong US dollar. ”

Key Findings

First falls in Dubai private sector output and new orders since start of 2010
Prices charged are cut at fastest pace in survey history
All three monitored sub-sectors record reduced output in February

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