Since the beginning of the industrial age, people fear that advanced technology development will increase the unemployment worldwide. Economists with more classical views ensured society this won’t be fatal. They admitted that it will take some time for humans to adjust. Nevertheless, they believed that people will reorient and discover new job positions. For the most part, these economists were right.
In the past two hundred years, there new technology-related innovations largely improved people’s lives. However, unemployment still hasn’t reached critical levels. It is true that there were a number of issues like struggles for equality and terrible wars in different parts of the world. Despite that, humans now enjoy longer lives and shorter workdays. As a result, we are generally healthier.
However, it is also true that today technology advances at a rapid pace. That creates certain disruptions.
In his popular article from 1983, the famous economist Wassily Leontief shared his worries of the quickly changing technology. According to him, this speedy development can make many workers, who can’t keep up, unusable. He compared the situation with the period when horses were replaced by cars. So will technology replace workers?
The wages in Asia are now increasing. That is why some factories in China are trying to use robots instead of human workhand. In addition, many people today own a smartphone and freely use the Internet. That leads to more online purchases and less jobs in the retail industry. Rough calculations show that tech development can decrease the job positions in the world with 5-10 million every year. Nevertheless, for now markets manage to handle the situation.
There is one curious and, at the same time, edifying case from chess. In the 70s and the 80s many people were afraid that chess players will be replaced by computers. In 1997, IBM’s computer Deep Blue easily won a game of chess against champion Gary Kasparov. Not long after that, sponsors refused to finance human chess championships and anticipated for new computer players.
Nowadays, chess players remain well-paid. However, their earnings cannot be compared to those they received in the old days. In addition, the payments of the less successful players have decreased dramatically compared to the 70s.
Despite that there is one interesting founding. Now there are more professional chess players than in the past. Also, because of computer chess programs, the game has become quite popular among the young in some counties.
Moreover, most parents prefer their children to play chess instead of meaningless computer games. Some countries, like Moldova and Armenia, have included chess in their school curriculum. For that reason, now there are thousands of players who have become well-paid chess trainers. In comparison, before the invention of Deep Blue there were only hundreds of players who made chess their profession.
However, there are many other things which influence the chess market. These examples are highly simplified. The main idea here is that the employment market can change in unpredictable ways.
The development of the technology does not have only advantageous aspects. In addition, changes can be hard to adapt to. For example, a Detroit autoworker who is unemployed can become a hospital technician after some proper training. But the question whether he would be willing to make that change remains open.
There are many chess school trainers who were once top players and were worried only by the thought of becoming teachers. However, now they are forced to do precisely that. Nevertheless, having a job is better than not having one.
Well, there is always the chance that the spread of advanced technology can turn out differently. Therefore, we should not use the past to predict the future. One thing is sure – as technology develops, people will face greater challenges. Nevertheless, there are no signs pointing to a dramatic rise of unemployment in the coming decades.
Admittedly, because of the advanced technology development the level of unemployment will increase in a way. That is more likely to happen is parts of the world where the excess of technology-related changes already hinders people’s adjustment. However, today’s high levels of unemployment are caused mainly by the financial crisis. Therefore, the situation should not be ranked among the worst periods of unemployment. It is too early to compare humans with horses.
