The global economy is stabilizing. This finding comes from the World Economic Forum’s newest Chief Economists’ Outlook, published on 22 September 2026 at the Sustainable Development Impact Meetings in New York.
56% of economists surveyed expect the global outlook to stay stable or improve over the next year. In May, 89% expected conditions to worsen. The shift marks a sharp change in sentiment over four months.
Confidence remains limited. 97% of economists name geopolitical conflict as a likely source of uncertainty. 58% expect asset prices to correct. Only one in four economists expect the global economy to grow more resilient.
The World Economic Forum’s Attilio Di Battista points to several pressures behind this caution. These include geopolitical volatility, potential asset price corrections, greater scrutiny of AI investment and continued cost of living strain. Government support carried the world economy through past shocks, but fiscal room now looks tighter.
Fiscal support drove resilience since 2020. 69% of economists cite it as the main factor. Only 28% expect it to play the same role in the next 12 months. Future resilience will lean more on flexible supply chains, new technology and energy market shifts. The United States and China are seen as best placed to absorb shocks.
AI adoption continues to rise. 97% of economists expect this trend to continue, and 69% expect meaningful productivity gains. 78% expect data centre investment to drive a large share of global growth. But 79% expect this build out to face real pushback from local communities.
61% of economists do not expect data centres to create many jobs. Most expect electricity prices (78%) and water prices (58%) to rise as a result. The AI race between China and the United States is narrowing. 69% of economists expect Chinese language models to catch up to their US counterparts within a year.
Global fragmentation is set to increase. 77% of economists expect this trend to grow. 55% expect US tariffs to rise further, and 43% expect the same in Europe. Trade is adapting around these shifts. Two thirds of economists expect global trade volumes to rise, and 83% expect Chinese exports to markets outside the US to grow.
The United States remains the top business environment for multinational companies. South East Asia and Europe follow, each rising one position. India dropped to fourth place. China holds fifth.
Growth outlooks vary by region. India, South East Asia, Central Asia and the United States received the strongest scores. China’s outlook weakened, with one in three economists expecting weak growth. Europe improved slightly but stays the weakest region, with 61% of economists expecting weak or very weak growth.
Living costs are set to climb. Food prices lead the list at 88%, followed by electricity at 83% and transport at 77%. Real incomes are expected to fall or stay flat in most regions. South East Asia and India are the exceptions, where over 60% of economists expect incomes to rise.
Governments are expected to respond with broad, visible measures. Tax cuts on essential goods (60%), consumption subsidies (54%) and price caps (50%) rank as the most likely tools. Fewer economists expect targeted support, with only 36% expecting tax relief for low income households and 26% expecting direct cash transfers.
FAQ
Question: Is the global economy stabilizing in 2026?
Answer: 56% of economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum expect the global outlook to remain stable or improve over the next year, up from 11% in May 2026.
Question: What risks remain despite the improved outlook?
Answer: Economists point to geopolitical conflict, potential asset price corrections, reduced fiscal support and rising living costs as continued sources of risk.
