The United Arab Emirates is expected to achieve a real GDP growth of 5.4% in 2026, according to the Central Bank of the UAE’s (CBUAE) latest 2024 Financial Stability Report. This optimistic forecast underscores the country’s strong economic fundamentals and successful efforts in fostering financial resilience amid global uncertainty.
The report highlights a clear upward trajectory in the UAE’s growth outlook, with real GDP projected to reach 4.4% in 2025, before accelerating to 5.4% in 2026. This surge reflects the momentum gained from robust performance in non-oil sectors, strategic investments, and macroeconomic stability — all critical to the UAE’s long-term diversification agenda.
The CBUAE attributes this resilience to the strength of the banking system, which continues to benefit from high capital and liquidity buffers, improved asset quality, and effective risk management. Comprehensive stress testing in 2024 confirmed that banks remain well-capitalized and capable of withstanding adverse macroeconomic conditions while continuing to support credit growth.
The UAE Financial Stability Council, chaired by H.H. Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, was operationalised in 2024, marking a key milestone in institutional coordination for risk oversight and policy response. Simultaneously, regulatory frameworks were enhanced through the introduction of macroprudential tools, expanded climate risk assessments, and reinforced cybersecurity measures.
Non-bank financial institutions also demonstrated resilience. The insurance sector recorded 21.4% growth in gross written premiums, reaching AED 64.8 billion, while finance companies and exchange businesses maintained adequate capital and operational stability.
The report further points to the accelerating pace of digital transformation, with wide adoption of FinTech solutions, artificial intelligence, and digital payment platforms such as “Jaywan” and “Aani”. Progress on the Digital Dirham CBDC is also advancing, reinforcing the UAE’s status as a forward-looking financial hub.
Looking ahead, the CBUAE projects continued economic expansion, supported by sound fiscal policies, strategic diversification, and strong institutional frameworks. The anticipated 5.4% growth in 2026 positions the UAE as one of the most dynamic and resilient economies in the region.
