As for the Singapore complex gross refining margin (GRM), Moody’s expects the GRM to average $7.5-$8.0/bbl in 2015, based on Moody’s forecast that the GRM will stay at healthy levels during the refinery turnaround season in the second half of 2015 from the average of $8.0 per barrel in Q2 2015.
Moody’s says the strong GRM levels will boost the results of refiners in Q2 2015. Refiners will also benefit from inventory valuation gains.
Moody’s publication points out that gasoline crack spreads strengthened in Q2 2015, against the backdrop of strong regional demand from South Asia and Indonesia, which in turn absorbed increasing exports from North Asia.
Middle distillate spreads remained stable in Q2 2015, as stronger demand eased the oversupply situation in the market.
Overall, Moody’s expects gasoline spreads to remain strong, based on Moody’s expectations of higher demand from the Middle East. Middle and heavy distillate spreads will stay under pressure.