The World Health Organization released a new publication about the Ebola outbreak situation in West Africa. Although the report contains some good news, the prognoses continue to be grim.
According to WHO, the Ebola outbreak in Senegal and Nigeria seem to be finally under control. The organization informs that although the death rate in the region has surpassed 2,800 people, the disease has stopped spreading in these two countries. Medical records show that there were no new registered Ebola cases in Senegal since 29 August. Similar is the situation in Nigeria where the last Ebola patient was reportedly diagnosed on 8 September.
The situation is stabilizing also in Sierra Leone, which is one of the worst affected countries n West Africa. There, Ebola lockdown, which was announced on Sunday is now over. The lockdown’s purpose is traditionally seen as the most aggressive containment measure, since it does not allow people to leave their homes.
Despite that, in its latest report, the World Health Organization states that new Ebola cases continue to emerge not only in Sierra Leone, but also in Liberia and Guinea. In addition, it explains that the number of Ebola cases in West Africa has reached almost 5,900. Epidemiologists tracking the spread of ebola virus disease are increasingly convinced that the current epidemic in West Africa has been growing exponentially for at least 16 weeks, since May 2014 . The number of new cases has been doubling every 20-30 days.
WHO’s forecast on the Ebola outbreak in the region are also not positive. The organization has estimated that in just month and a half the Ebola cases may reach 21,000. Ebola death rate is also likely to continue to increase, since around 70% of all the patients treated in hospitals die. What is even more disturbing is that WHO predicts that the infection rate may hit 0.55 – 1.4 million in Sierra Leone and Liberia alone by the end of January 2015.
Nevertheless, the World Health Organization adds that this is just an early forecast that will depend on the response and the measures that West Africa will witness in next few weeks and months. Still, WHO highlights the fact that unless control measures are increased, the Ebola outbreak may continue to spread for many years to come.
Apart from better control measures, the key to ending Ebola may be hidden in science. A new experimental Ebola drug was recently approved by the Food and Drug Administration. It was made by a Canadian company and it will be used along with the earlier approved drug called ZMapp. Although the new drug does not prevent Ebola infection, it stops the virus from replicating.
